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More reliable than polls
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Posted by: TNT

I got this off the NY Slimes, goes pretty far to show how they BIAS polls.
The professor is in bold the reporter isn't, My comments in italics.

QUESTIONS FOR RAY C. FAIR
Bush Landslide (in Theory)!
Interview by DEBORAH SOLOMON

Published: August 15, 2004

Q As a professor of economics at Yale, you are known for creating an econometric equation that has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy.

My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5 percent of the two-party votes.
read it and weep stupid asshole

The polls are suggesting a much closer race.

Polls are notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election, and there is a limit to how much you want to trust polls.

Why should we trust your equation, which seems unusually reductive?

It has done well historically. The average mistake of the equation is about 2.5 percentage points.
More bad news for the demoncrats
In your book ''Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,'' you claim that economic growth and inflation are the only variables that matter in a presidential race. Are you saying that the war in Iraq will have no influence on the election?

Historically, issues like war haven't swamped the economics. If the equation is correctly specified, then the chances that Bush loses are very small.

But the country hasn't been this polarized since the 60's, and voters seem genuinely engaged by social issues like gay marriage and the overall question of a more just society.

We throw all those into what we call the error term. In the past, all that stuff that you think should count averages about 2.5 percent, and that is pretty small.

It saddens me that you teach this to students at Yale, who could be thinking about society in complex and meaningful ways.
How DARE this guy not spoonfeed college students lieberal rhetoric! Who the HELL does he think he is teaching them a math based model that's accurate?

I will be teaching econometrics next year to undergraduates. Econometrics is a huge deal, because it is applied to all kinds of things.

Yes, I know one of your studies used the econometric method to predict who is most likely to have an extramarital affair.

In that case, the key economic question was whether high-wage people are more or less likely to engage in an affair. They are slightly more likely to have an affair. But the economic theory is ambiguous because if your wage is really high, that tends to make you work more, and that would cut down on how much time you want to spend in an affair.

Are you a Republican?
Typical lieberal tactic. Don't like the answers, try to find a way to call your opponent a fanatic.

I can't credibly answer that question. Using game theory in economics, you are not going to believe me when I tell you my political affiliation because I know that you know that I could be behaving strategically. If I tell you I am a Kerry supporter, how do you know that I am not lying or behaving strategically to try to put more weight on the predictions and help the Republicans?

I don't want to do game theory. I just want to know if you are a Kerry supporter.

Backing away from game theory, which is kind of cute, I am a Kerry supporter.

I believe you entirely, although I'm a little surprised, because your predictions implicitly lend support to Bush.
(It's a mathematical model, you dumb bitch!)

I am not attempting to be an advocate for one party or another. I am attempting to be a social scientist trying to explain voting behavior.

But in the process you are shaping opinion. Predictions can be self-confirming, because wishy-washy voters might go with the candidate who is perceived to be more successful.
GOTCHA! She's just admitted that people like the Slimes and other lieberal sources SLANT polls to help the candidate they support. Typical of a lieberal, she thinks that means that everyone else stoops to the same dirty tactic she does.

It could work the other way. If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong.

Perhaps you could create an equation that would calculate how important the forecasts of economists are.

There are so many polls and predictions, and I am not sure the net effect of any one of them is much.

Yes, everyone in America is a forecaster. We all think we know how things will turn out.

So in that case, no one has much influence, including me.

Posted by: IMSA

Truth is, anyone can find a poll somewhere that's going to reflect their opinions. How's the hand?

IMSA

Posted by: BurnOut

IMSA- you're a jackass who doesn't see the irony in the statement that you just made (note that if TNT had posted a poll showing Kerry winning, you'd accept it without thinking twice).

Posted by: TNT

My hand's fine. Amost 100% mobility now. My thumb's still got minimal feeling, but that should come back with time. At this point I'm just working to get my strength back.

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